For the first time since the last oil shock of the early 1980s, global greenhouse gas emissions are poised to fall significantly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) just released its monthly oil report within which they lowered oil demand projections by 1 million barrels per day (Mbd) from last month. Such a fall in consumption brings total demand down 2.4 Mbd (2.8%) from 2008 and translates into a fall in carbon emissions by Continue reading
The EIA just released its monthly estimate of US oil consumption for August and the number is encouraging.
Our peak monthly demand was hit in August 2005 at almost 21.7 million barrels per day (Mbd). By this past August, demand had slid 11% to ~19.3 Mbd. The last time demand was this low was 1997, and it is only Continue reading
Thanks to consumption of oil falling 3.5%+ in 2008, it looks like US greenhouse gas emissions will fall greater than 1% this year. The rapid fall in oil consumption is tempered by the increase in emissions from slightly greater coal demand and an increase in consumption of cleaner-burning natural gas. If the overall trend continues through December, it will put us on track to meet the federal cap & trade legislation goal of Continue reading
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just lowered its global demand forecast again in its October oil report, making 2008 demand growth lower than 500,000 barrels per day (half the average rate of the last several years). The news, along with the financial collapse of last week, brought oil below $80 per barrel for the first time in a year before rebounding today along with global stock markets. Also in the report was a reduction in supplies, especially from non-OPEC countries who may be in permanent decline from here on out. Thus, the trillion dollar question that emerges for more accurate price projection is: Which will be faster — Continue reading
The continued fall in the price of oil due to stock market crashes worldwide leads most analysts to wonder how far down it can go? To understand the depths of oil’s potential price we have to first understand the potential imbalance of demand and supply that can send prices lower than $80 per barrel. This blog will focus on the demand side and probe US demand specifically.
At ~20 million barrels per day (Mbd), the United States consumes more than double the amount of the world’s #2 consumer, China (~8.3 Mbd). US consumption equals almost 24% of world consumption. Thus, fluctuations in US demand have Continue reading